diff --git a/core/internal/data/metrics.go b/core/internal/data/metrics.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..06c2a28
--- /dev/null
+++ b/core/internal/data/metrics.go
@@ -0,0 +1,292 @@
+package data
+
+import (
+	"database/sql"
+	"fmt"
+	"time"
+)
+
+type BinaryScores struct {
+	N   int64   `json:"n"`
+	N11 int64   `json:"n11"` // 预报雨 且 实况雨
+	N01 int64   `json:"n01"` // 预报不雨 但 实况雨（漏报）
+	N10 int64   `json:"n10"` // 预报雨 但 实况不雨（空报）
+	N00 int64   `json:"n00"` // 预报不雨 且 实况不雨
+	CSI float64 `json:"csi"` // Threat Score / Critical Success Index
+	POD float64 `json:"pod"` // Probability of Detection
+	FAR float64 `json:"far"` // False Alarm Rate
+}
+
+// ForecastBinaryScores computes contingency counts and TS/POD/FAR over [since, until) by hour.
+// provider may be empty -> treat as required provider? We'll require explicit provider; if empty, default to imdroid_mix.
+func ForecastBinaryScores(stationID string, since, until time.Time, provider string, thresholdMM float64) (BinaryScores, error) {
+	if provider == "" {
+		provider = "imdroid_mix"
+	}
+	thrX1000 := int64(thresholdMM * 1000.0)
+	const q = `
+WITH base AS (
+  SELECT bucket_start, rain_10m_mm_x1000
+  FROM rs485_weather_10min
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND bucket_start >= $2 AND bucket_start < $3
+), actual AS (
+  SELECT date_trunc('hour', bucket_start) + interval '1 hour' AS hour,
+         SUM(rain_10m_mm_x1000)::bigint AS rain_sum
+  FROM base
+  GROUP BY 1
+), fc AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time,
+         ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY forecast_time ORDER BY issued_at DESC) AS rn,
+         COALESCE(rain_mm_x1000,0)::bigint AS rain_x1000
+  FROM forecast_hourly
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND provider = $4 AND forecast_time >= $2 AND forecast_time < $3
+), pair AS (
+  SELECT a.hour AS t,
+         a.rain_sum AS actual_x1000,
+         COALESCE(f.rain_x1000,0) AS pred_x1000
+  FROM actual a
+  LEFT JOIN (SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000 FROM fc WHERE rn=1) f ON f.forecast_time = a.hour
+)
+SELECT 
+  COUNT(*) AS n,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $5 AND actual_x1000 >  $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n11,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $5 AND actual_x1000 >  $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n01,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $5 AND actual_x1000 <= $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n10,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $5 AND actual_x1000 <= $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n00
+FROM pair`
+
+	row := DB().QueryRow(q, stationID, since, until, provider, thrX1000)
+	var s BinaryScores
+	if err := row.Scan(&s.N, &s.N11, &s.N01, &s.N10, &s.N00); err != nil {
+		if err == sql.ErrNoRows {
+			return BinaryScores{}, nil
+		}
+		return BinaryScores{}, fmt.Errorf("query scores: %w", err)
+	}
+	h, m, f := float64(s.N11), float64(s.N01), float64(s.N10)
+	if (h + m + f) > 0 {
+		s.CSI = h / (h + m + f)
+	}
+	if (h + m) > 0 {
+		s.POD = h / (h + m)
+	}
+	if (h + f) > 0 {
+		s.FAR = f / (h + f)
+	}
+	return s, nil
+}
+
+// ForecastBinaryScoresMixedOnlyForecast computes scores where a forecast exists for that hour (mixed latest), using INNER JOIN on forecast.
+func ForecastBinaryScoresMixedOnlyForecast(stationID string, since, until time.Time, provider string, thresholdMM float64) (BinaryScores, error) {
+	if provider == "" {
+		provider = "imdroid_mix"
+	}
+	thrX1000 := int64(thresholdMM * 1000.0)
+	const q = `
+WITH base AS (
+  SELECT bucket_start, rain_10m_mm_x1000
+  FROM rs485_weather_10min
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND bucket_start >= $2 AND bucket_start < $3
+), actual AS (
+  SELECT date_trunc('hour', bucket_start) + interval '1 hour' AS hour,
+         SUM(rain_10m_mm_x1000)::bigint AS rain_sum
+  FROM base
+  GROUP BY 1
+), fc AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time,
+         ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY forecast_time ORDER BY issued_at DESC) AS rn,
+         COALESCE(rain_mm_x1000,0)::bigint AS rain_x1000
+  FROM forecast_hourly
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND provider = $4 AND forecast_time >= $2 AND forecast_time < $3
+), pair AS (
+  SELECT a.hour AS t,
+         a.rain_sum AS actual_x1000,
+         f.rain_x1000 AS pred_x1000
+  FROM actual a
+  INNER JOIN (SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000 FROM fc WHERE rn=1) f ON f.forecast_time = a.hour
+)
+SELECT 
+  COUNT(*) AS n,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $5 AND actual_x1000 >  $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n11,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $5 AND actual_x1000 >  $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n01,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $5 AND actual_x1000 <= $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n10,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $5 AND actual_x1000 <= $5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n00
+FROM pair`
+	row := DB().QueryRow(q, stationID, since, until, provider, thrX1000)
+	var s BinaryScores
+	if err := row.Scan(&s.N, &s.N11, &s.N01, &s.N10, &s.N00); err != nil {
+		if err == sql.ErrNoRows {
+			return BinaryScores{}, nil
+		}
+		return BinaryScores{}, fmt.Errorf("query scores(mixed): %w", err)
+	}
+	h, m, f := float64(s.N11), float64(s.N01), float64(s.N10)
+	if (h + m + f) > 0 {
+		s.CSI = h / (h + m + f)
+	}
+	if (h + m) > 0 {
+		s.POD = h / (h + m)
+	}
+	if (h + f) > 0 {
+		s.FAR = f / (h + f)
+	}
+	return s, nil
+}
+
+// ForecastBinaryScoresLead computes scores for a fixed lead (1/2/3), counting only hours where that lead exists.
+func ForecastBinaryScoresLead(stationID string, since, until time.Time, provider string, thresholdMM float64, lead int) (BinaryScores, error) {
+	if provider == "" {
+		provider = "imdroid_mix"
+	}
+	thrX1000 := int64(thresholdMM * 1000.0)
+	const q = `
+WITH base AS (
+  SELECT bucket_start, rain_10m_mm_x1000
+  FROM rs485_weather_10min
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND bucket_start >= $2 AND bucket_start < $3
+), actual AS (
+  SELECT date_trunc('hour', bucket_start) + interval '1 hour' AS hour,
+         SUM(rain_10m_mm_x1000)::bigint AS rain_sum
+  FROM base
+  GROUP BY 1
+), raw AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time, issued_at,
+         CEIL(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (forecast_time - issued_at)) / 3600.0)::int AS lead_hours,
+         COALESCE(rain_mm_x1000,0)::bigint AS rain_x1000
+  FROM forecast_hourly
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND provider = $4 AND forecast_time >= $2 AND forecast_time < $3
+), fc AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000,
+         ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY forecast_time ORDER BY issued_at DESC) AS rn
+  FROM raw WHERE lead_hours = $5
+), pair AS (
+  SELECT a.hour AS t,
+         a.rain_sum AS actual_x1000,
+         f.rain_x1000 AS pred_x1000
+  FROM actual a
+  INNER JOIN (SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000 FROM fc WHERE rn=1) f ON f.forecast_time = a.hour
+)
+SELECT 
+  COUNT(*) AS n,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $6 AND actual_x1000 >  $6 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n11,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $6 AND actual_x1000 >  $6 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n01,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 >  $6 AND actual_x1000 <= $6 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n10,
+  SUM(CASE WHEN pred_x1000 <= $6 AND actual_x1000 <= $6 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n00
+FROM pair`
+	row := DB().QueryRow(q, stationID, since, until, provider, lead, thrX1000)
+	var s BinaryScores
+	if err := row.Scan(&s.N, &s.N11, &s.N01, &s.N10, &s.N00); err != nil {
+		if err == sql.ErrNoRows {
+			return BinaryScores{}, nil
+		}
+		return BinaryScores{}, fmt.Errorf("query scores(lead): %w", err)
+	}
+	h, m, f := float64(s.N11), float64(s.N01), float64(s.N10)
+	if (h + m + f) > 0 {
+		s.CSI = h / (h + m + f)
+	}
+	if (h + m) > 0 {
+		s.POD = h / (h + m)
+	}
+	if (h + f) > 0 {
+		s.FAR = f / (h + f)
+	}
+	return s, nil
+}
+
+// BinaryRow holds per-hour aligned actual/pred pair for detail view.
+type BinaryRow struct {
+	T        time.Time
+	ActualMM float64
+	PredMM   float64
+}
+
+// ForecastBinarySeriesMixed returns per-hour rows for hours with a forecast (mixed latest).
+func ForecastBinarySeriesMixed(stationID string, since, until time.Time, provider string) ([]BinaryRow, error) {
+	if provider == "" {
+		provider = "imdroid_mix"
+	}
+	const q = `
+WITH base AS (
+  SELECT bucket_start, rain_10m_mm_x1000
+  FROM rs485_weather_10min
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND bucket_start >= $2 AND bucket_start < $3
+), actual AS (
+  SELECT date_trunc('hour', bucket_start) + interval '1 hour' AS hour,
+         SUM(rain_10m_mm_x1000)::bigint AS rain_sum
+  FROM base
+  GROUP BY 1
+), fc AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time,
+         ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY forecast_time ORDER BY issued_at DESC) AS rn,
+         COALESCE(rain_mm_x1000,0)::bigint AS rain_x1000
+  FROM forecast_hourly
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND provider = $4 AND forecast_time >= $2 AND forecast_time < $3
+)
+SELECT a.hour, a.rain_sum, f.rain_x1000
+FROM actual a
+INNER JOIN (SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000 FROM fc WHERE rn=1) f ON f.forecast_time = a.hour
+ORDER BY a.hour`
+	rows, err := DB().Query(q, stationID, since, until, provider)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
+	defer rows.Close()
+	var out []BinaryRow
+	for rows.Next() {
+		var t time.Time
+		var ax, px int64
+		if err := rows.Scan(&t, &ax, &px); err != nil {
+			continue
+		}
+		out = append(out, BinaryRow{T: t, ActualMM: float64(ax) / 1000.0, PredMM: float64(px) / 1000.0})
+	}
+	return out, nil
+}
+
+// ForecastBinarySeriesLead returns per-hour rows for a fixed lead (latest issued per hour for that lead only).
+func ForecastBinarySeriesLead(stationID string, since, until time.Time, provider string, lead int) ([]BinaryRow, error) {
+	if provider == "" {
+		provider = "imdroid_mix"
+	}
+	const q = `
+WITH base AS (
+  SELECT bucket_start, rain_10m_mm_x1000
+  FROM rs485_weather_10min
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND bucket_start >= $2 AND bucket_start < $3
+), actual AS (
+  SELECT date_trunc('hour', bucket_start) + interval '1 hour' AS hour,
+         SUM(rain_10m_mm_x1000)::bigint AS rain_sum
+  FROM base
+  GROUP BY 1
+), raw AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time, issued_at,
+         CEIL(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (forecast_time - issued_at)) / 3600.0)::int AS lead_hours,
+         COALESCE(rain_mm_x1000,0)::bigint AS rain_x1000
+  FROM forecast_hourly
+  WHERE station_id = $1 AND provider = $4 AND forecast_time >= $2 AND forecast_time < $3
+), fc AS (
+  SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000,
+         ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY forecast_time ORDER BY issued_at DESC) AS rn
+  FROM raw WHERE lead_hours = $5
+)
+SELECT a.hour, a.rain_sum, f.rain_x1000
+FROM actual a
+INNER JOIN (SELECT forecast_time, rain_x1000 FROM fc WHERE rn=1) f ON f.forecast_time = a.hour
+ORDER BY a.hour`
+	rows, err := DB().Query(q, stationID, since, until, provider, lead)
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil, err
+	}
+	defer rows.Close()
+	var out []BinaryRow
+	for rows.Next() {
+		var t time.Time
+		var ax, px int64
+		if err := rows.Scan(&t, &ax, &px); err != nil {
+			continue
+		}
+		out = append(out, BinaryRow{T: t, ActualMM: float64(ax) / 1000.0, PredMM: float64(px) / 1000.0})
+	}
+	return out, nil
+}